Novavax Boosts Chemistry With Retooled Vaccine
http://online.barrons.com/articles/novavax-boosts-chemistry-with-retooled-vaccine-1438594590
Upgrade de Wedbush:
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As anticipated, Novavax’s (ticker: NVAX ) retooled vaccine demonstrated robust antibody titers against all four viral strains of influenza, both for the accepted surrogate endpoint of hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) titers and for neuraminidase-inhibiting (NAI) titers — a potential differentiator. We see these data as de-risking to the seasonal flu program. In our view, these data, in concert with the positive Ebola data released [recently] de-risk the pandemic and seasonal flu vaccine platforms. We have lowered our discount rate for these programs to 15%, driving our price target to $13 [from $11]. We reiterate our Outperform rating.
The vaccine met all seroconversion and seroprotection endpoints; therefore, it is possible for Novavax to pursue accelerated approval on a surrogate endpoint of HAI titers. However, Novavax will explore options with its partner, the Office of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA); although an accelerated pathway is faster, an efficacy trial may highlight potential superior efficacy of the Novavax vaccine. We note there was a comparator vaccine in the current Phase II study; Novavax’s vaccine met or exceeded the comparator in seroconversion and seroprotection for all strains and has NAI activity, which can set it apart.
Seasonal flu program is funded through a BARDA contract; we see this program as a free flyer for investors that can generate value for Novavax and potentially pave the way to a pentavalent flu/RSV vaccine. BARDA also funds the pandemic flu vaccine program. We expect the H7N9 pandemic influenza vaccine to enter Phase II development in the elderly in first-quarter 2016 — our first look at Novavax’s novel Matrix-M adjuvant in the elderly population.
We continue to view upcoming respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) data readout as a significant value driver for the company. We anticipate data from the 1,600 subject RSV study in the elderly to readout in August. In our view, a high 2014-2015 RSV rate, high dose of antigen (135 micrograms) and previous strong immunogenicity data for the 90-microgram dose suggest Novavax’s RSV vaccine should demonstrate efficacy in this population
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Si por el Ebola y la gripe suben 2 dolares ... por las dos del RSV suben el doble ... al tiempo.
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