#117905
Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
Howard Marks, who I believe is a fantastic investor and writer, points out in his latest newsletter, and I quote, "The biggest risk of all is the possibility of rising interest rates." Rates have declined quite steadily for the last 40 years. This has been a huge tailwind for investors since the declining rate environment lowers the demand return on assets -- lowers the demanded returns on assets making for higher asset prices. But the downtrend in rates is over, if we can believe the Fed's assurance that it won't take nominal rates into negative territory. Thus while interest rates can rise from here, implying higher demand and returns on everything, and that's lower asset prices, they can't decline. This creates a negatively asymmetrical proposition. So today's high asset prices may be justified at today's interest rates, but that's clearly a source of vulnerability if rates were to rise.
I would argue the opposite could be true today for fossil fuel energy companies. As the fossil fuel energy companies already have higher cost of capital as the market perceives the need for added risk premium. As the call for carbon-free electricity has increased over the last 4 years, politicians may have overpromised on the timing of what is practical to deliver. And as a result, Hallador went from trading at an enterprise value of 7.1x in 2017 EBITDA -- 7.1x EBITDA to trading at roughly half that multiple today. The question is, will the need for a risk premium increase or decrease from current levels over time, is Hallador more likely to return to multiples of 7x or drop to multiple of 2x over the next few years.
Estos tios hacen un buen trabajo, han bajado bastante los costes y cancelado el dividendo cuando era necesario. Han comentado q por debajo de 2 veces net debt/ebitda probablemente lo reinstauren y a este paso, eso sera el año que viene.
Ven complicado que para 2035 sea carbon free y bastante positivos con el año que viene. Dicen que febrero ha venido como anillo al dedo para bajar los inventarios acumulados
Ven complicado que para 2035 sea carbon free y bastante positivos con el año que viene. Dicen que febrero ha venido como anillo al dedo para bajar los inventarios acumulados