#118481
Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés
Os dejo un buen comentario que me he encontrado en SA
OK ... every time BABA has earnings, they do it before the Options expire and every time the stock drops no matter how big the earnings. The hedge fund press signals the wolves in the options pits to protect their strike. Happens every time.
OK ... every time BABA has earnings, they do it before the Options expire and every time the stock drops no matter how big the earnings. The hedge fund press signals the wolves in the options pits to protect their strike. Happens every time.
BABA just reported the greatest numbers in its history. They even took the full fine in one quarter. Consumer sales in China up 74%.
Also, hedge funds are after Cathie Woods Ark fund. She is not playing the good ole boy game and she is a risk-taker. Many on her staff are vector mathematicians so she is good at picking stocks but she is also honest to a fault and PUBLISHES her daily trades. No other funds do that. So she is being targeted after the meltdown of Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital. The funds are still wolfpacking. The last thing a hedge fund wants is to post its filthy daily trades. She is refreshingly honest and I think that is why she has had so few redemptions.
China has a whole different thing going. They are after Jack Ma, they view him as a traitor. The two events coincided and that was Bill Hwang's bad timing. But China is also keenly aware that the US economy is in big trouble.
Chinese economists have written many papers on using the debt to GDP as a metric of RISK. China abandoned using massive stimulus after the 2015 Chinese Stockmarket collapse. Massive stimulus in their view stimulates speculation and risk. In a working-class society like China, that kind of risk results in higher unemployment, real estate speculation, and private sector business failures and defaults that must be covered by Gov. It is highly destablizing.
When China eliminated shadow banking, They found that they could stimulate small sectors of the economy without massive speculative causing stimulus. In the last several years they have determined that slower growth and stamping out risk prevented recessions. Thus the US has had three massive recessions since 2006, and China has had none.
China thinks the US government spending will cycle into another recession or possibly a US depression. That is why China is slightly tightening credit and at the same time stimulating domestic consumption. They did this with Tax Cuts. Their economists are in defensive mode.
Trump was awful for the US economy. Tax cuts were fine but the massive Gov spending in the face of tax cuts is suicide. Then the tariffs. In spite of the enormous damage to the farmer, manufacturing etc and a collapse of US Exports and the supply chain, Trump continued to mindlessly blame everyone including China, Europe, Mexico, Canada etc. That destroyed US goodwill then along came Biden.
Biden has continued the worst policies of Trump, raised deficit spending to the highest in global history, and proposing taxes and more spending. This just isn't going to work. Inflation came in at 4.2% Unemployment went up, and wholesale prices over the year are up 6.2%. This is unsustainable. So for all practical purposes, China is tightening. China also released the Digital Yuan to use to purchase commodities to avoid the Dollar impact on commodities
The US Dollar reserve is fully weaponized. But Druckenmiller aptly pointed out that the loose monetary policy would cause interest rates to rise, dollar value would fall.
So if you were using the US Dollar to buy grain, you would need more dollars to buy the grain. So this would not be appealing. Further, if it was a large purchase like oil then you would have to borrow the cheaper dollars and pay higher interest. Again, this is not appealing to a trading nation. Druckenmiller said this could cause the US Dollar reserve to be replaced and that would be catastrophic for the US Economy. As if it isn't already. Trump and this deaf Biden have 40% of the world population under sanctions. The US economy is melting down with every Biden move.
This appears to be why the largest buying and selling economy, China has introduced the Digital Yuan. Now anybody that trades with China can trade in the Digital Yuan. They moved it out quickly because the US looks unstable. FDR with his insane spending prolonged the Great Depression by 15 years. It didn't end until Truman got in.
FDR opposed Tariffs and ended Smoot Hawley. Smoot Hawley Tariffs caused a garden variety recession to become a Depression [Joseph Stiglitz]. FDR also opposed Gov Unions. Biden is in favour of both Gov Unions and Tariffs. So this is going to be a disaster.
Without a doubt, Biden will be in Gridlock in the midterms. The Economy will be destroyed by then.
Look at the reckless speculation in the USA at this moment. House prices soaring, commodities soaring, inflation, Bitcoin, Doggiecoin and other forms of basically travellers checks. These are tulips. There is nothing here but a ponzi scheme. Look at Tesla stopped taking Bitcoin yesterday and bitcoin fell 15% overnight. That is unstable.
There has never been any instance where massive gov spending and hyperlose monetary policy has not led to a recession or worse. The Subprime was not that long ago. Remember it, House flippers, crazy lending, and if you so much as suggested as I did many times that the real estate market would collapse, I had dozens in my face saying Real Estate has never collapsed. Well, it collapsed. And ever since then, instead of deleveraging, Gov opened the spigots of printed money and hasn't stopped.
China should quietly go about their business of expanding its domestic consumption to lessen the blow of the incoming US recession. They should learn to ignore the US and just build their economy.
Yesterday I pointed out the auto subprime loan delinquencies are at the highest since 2005, just before a wave of mortgage defaults sparked the global financial crisis. 10.9% of subprime borrowers with car loans were more than 60 days overdue in February, up from 10.7% in January and a sixth straight monthly gain. IT is getting worse.
One poster with the Trump pension to fabricate said this was because car sales were way up. That's false Auto sales are down 4.7% in the US.
I have never seen the US economy thrive on $3 a gallon petrol. The average US price is over that number now. All the crazy blaming and excuses for this rise and the excuses for commodities rising... The US Dolllar is down 8%. And fuel cost are up 11% since Biden stopped all oil leases and ordered US firms to breach the Keystone 2 contracts. Fuel prices were high before the Colonial Pipeline incident. The Incident only showed how fragile the fuel delivery system has become.
Traditionally when US Interest rates rise, Americans buy foreign assets to offset interest. Munger explained this with his BABA purchase. When the dollar falls foreign assets rise in value.
BABA unfortunately is traded inside ETF and other instruments in which it is comingled with US stocks. So the indexes buying and selling masks the fact it is a foreign company. I assure you Munger will prevail as will BABA.
This is the most unstable US economy I have ever seen. Biden's attempts to stimulate massive government expansion and overrun the private sector will lead to an unmitigated economic disaster for the USA. China should quietly attend to its business and forward no more political responses.
I think the Chinese Government is getting a backlash from businesses over the Alibaba Fine and will likely avoid doing this again ever in the future because it is a bad policy. I would have thought they would have learned from the Qualcomm fine that large fines are unproductive. In the Qualcomm case, it resulted in a slowing of chip technology which they must sorely regret now. I view the Qualcomm fine as an attempt to Nancy Kerrigan kneecap Qualcomm in an effort to punish the United States. Instead, it just produced bad results that slowed down the much desired Qualcomm technologies with no benefit to China at all, other than bad will toward the USA. The USA was perfectly justified to retaliate against China for the Qualcomm incident. If Europe pulls this garbage on US multinationals, then the US should retaliate. But keep your arguments straight. Punish in kind, not go off like Trump and commit suicide with Tariffs levied against Americans. Trump was just blunt stupid.
It is so simple, just make it reciprocal. If the EU fines Google then the US should just raise taxes on EU firms by a tiny increment at let Google write off the fine on the taxes. Trump's idea of Tariffs only hurts US businesses and consumers. Blut stupid.
The Chinese fine against Alibaba was monumentally stupid. They were after Jack Ma for concealing material facts on the ANT IPO application. Instead of going after Jack Ma they pulled the Qualcomm fine out of their tails and created enormous bad blood with everyone but Jack Ma. It caused shaken faith in the Chinese Gov. Alibaba should go to the Chinese Courts and appeal the size of the fine and give the Gov a way to reduce it and save face. It would also improve the appearance of Chinese Civil Justice.
What they have now is a rehash of Qualcomm and that cost them dearly in that more US semiconductor companies open facilities in Singapore than China. Big US corporations that want to join the big Asian markets should go where it is friendly not someplace like the EU or China if the gov is going to pull this heavy-handed fine stuff. In deference to China, they would not dare fine another US multinational as they did with Qualcomm. They know better now. But here they are with the draconian fine against a homegrown Chinese firm and that is Trump styled suicide harmful to China and to Chinese employees and Alibaba global employees.
Tomorrow is Options expiration so expect to see buyers in BABA, squeezing the call sellers out of the money. This is always the same setup. Should be a fun day tomorrow
Freedom is driven by determination
