Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Rainy river a estos precios del oro estará cerca de dar perdidas, como no remonte el oro mal asunto

Sí, soy consciente de ello. Aunque lo he escrito en otro post, el transcript de la conference call del Q2 da buenas pistas. Hay que ser pacientes. La compañía tiene más de 500 millones de dólares para financiarse durante los siguientes 9 meses, y el trigger de 2020, junto con un rebote reciente en Asia, son signos positivos. Conforme pase el tiempo, la demanda para barcos con baja emisión de sulfuro será clave. Además, el accionariado (Magallanes, Bestinver, Fidelity y la propia familia Lolli-Ghetti -dueña de Scorpio Services Holding Services-) llega a un porcentaje alto del capital social, por lo que habría resistencia para ampliar capital a costa del accionista actual.

Me quedo con estas dos declaraciones de Bugbee de la conference call:

1- Well, I think it's not a question that potentially you got wrong. I mean, I think we -- all of us did not expect. I don't think this demand side deepening. This constant deepening in terms of the inventory draws and then you had -- it's difficult to say, maybe you had things flushed in this last 6, 7 weeks because you had such volatility, especially around the Atlantic that the Asian markets suddenly started to -- not suddenly, but it started to improve as you would expect. And the Asian market is -- east of Suez is much stronger than the West. That sort of shows really the industrial growth, the demand that has to come all the time and that's happening. And the West is, we know it has been still under pressure with tremendous volatility and local differences, whether it's Brazil strikes or whether it's simply the pricing volatility around the oil price and products itself in what is a seasonal period and traders don't seem to be wanting to get ahead and take risks with headlines out there changing every day regarding economic -- the general picture of economics related to various government potential policies or not. So I think as we turn towards winter, the market will have to start to adjust -- they can't carry on tracking the inventory growth forever. As I said, the Asia is already positive. As you turn to winter, you will have to do something ahead of 2020. You're going to have to get some of this ultra-low sulfur in place. That dislocation is going to help. It's going to be a boon from 2020 tremendously to the demand for products. And it's reasonable to think that a lot of -- you're going to have move product around the world increasingly into '20 to build the stores and build the access without low sulfur when January 1 comes around. And that is coming on low inventories. So it's very, very reasonable to think that the market is ready, poised for recovery, but it's all -- it's like never dark as before the dawn. We may have just seen that. We've seen Asia start to click up. We've seen the big ships starting to improve on counter-seasonal basis. We've seen a related markets. The LPG market has being getting stronger, as -- again, in a counter-seasonal move. That's a reasonable sign. The VLCC market is at least stabilized out. So that's what I would say at the moment. 

2- You could think about way you want where it's a different dynamic. Right? I mean, Brian has said he isn't stopping where he is stopping. So it is the dynamic structure and that we were able to raise enough liquidity to in effect get ahead of the mathematical situation. So we haven't -- we're stronger today despite the weakness of the second and the third quarters than we were at the end of the first quarter. We may well be stronger at the end of this quarter than we were. And we are -- than we are right now on this conference call. And we may be stronger, again, at the end of December 31 than we are now. So the object, we'll see the -- this 2020 position. And as I said to the previous caller, we also think that the market will -- there's no industry better than the product market that will gain in terms of demand from 2020 that we see not just 2020, but we see that you have to move cargo around even prior to that position in the '19 position. So you can well have a weak third quarter. You could have a weak fourth quarter and still the balance sheet itself in terms of liquidity may even be stronger than where it is today.

Solo cuenta lo q hay... me parece bastante correcto el articulo para lo bueno y lo malo los periodistas estan ahi , o acaso exagera algun dato ...

Si no me equivoco esto lo pusiste tu

la proxima entrada en participaciones en el fondo la hare cuando baje minimo un 20% ahora a esperar, 2 años y perdiendo el 6% en el seleccion, yo no digo nada,no voy a largo pues a esperar,en compras y ventas en 1 año llevo una rentabilidad del 10%,esto del fondo es para diversificar,la... Leer más
No te veo muy contento...

El accionista actual siempre será reticente a ampliar capital porque se diluye salvo que tenga que aflojar la cartera y meter más exposición en el mismo activo.

Es cierto que ha amasado una gran cantidad de liquidez pero sin ninguna duda se debe a que tiene que pagar el leasing de casi un tercio de la flota. Es básicamente es casi el 150% del DWT que adquirió con la compra de NAVIG8 en primavera del año pasado.

El Sale&Lease back ha sido una medida desesperada porque no podían pagar sus compromisos financieros. Me parece una medida peligrosísima con la que han tratado de ganar tiempo a la espera del giro de los rates. ¿y si no llega en los próximos 9-12 meses?. STNG tiene la mayoría de la flota en spot rate y mientras los rates sigan donde están, van a perder dinero a manos llenas (los 2 últimos años han presentado pérdidas y este 2018 con toda seguridad también las va a presentar de 9 cifras).

Sobre los comentarios de R. Bugbee:

1. - Es lo mismo que lleva diciendo 4 trimestres atrás. Estaría bien preguntarle por qué cree que el mercado de tankers se ha venido abajo las últimas 6-8 semanas, justo el mismo periodo en el que dice que ya se han producido algunos giros como en Asia.

2. - Veamos cuando liquidez pierde en Q3 y Q4.

Esta compañía está hiper espuesta a su balance y a los rates (prácticamente no tiene contratos de largo plazo). Le hace mucha falta que los rates suban con fuerza.

Si, ha sido bastante objetivo

A fecha de 30/06/18 las accs. que tiene cada fondo deben de ser ser estas;

-Grandes C.  131.600 accs.

-Internac.    2.838.300 accs

-Renta              18.200 accs

-Seleccion 4.960.000 accs
-F.I.L                 XXXX
Total de accs de Cobas 7.948.100

Total accs.Aritza          89.930.000

Cobas tiene el             8,83% de Aritza mas lo que pueda tener en el F.I.L

(hecho con datos de CNMV a fecha del 30/06/18)

lo que no entiendo es porque entra gente aqui a comentar cosas en donde no estan invertidos en los fondos cobas y solo entran a tocar los huevos