Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo

Yo tampoco me creo ese rebote, necesitan pasta, a esperar la dilución y luego me voy a inchar hasta el culo

mientras voy por AAPL y alguna mas....

Framus, como loco perdido volví a comprar NVCN a 0.0375 para bajar algo la media. Con mil y pico dólares tengo 25.000 títulos. Lo máximo que puedo perder es eso pero como explote y se vaya a 1.xx saco una pasta...ehhhh

Edito: yo lo veo como comprar Nvax a 0.70.

Saludos

Lo más importante que un AA (Accelerated Approval) parece poco probable por los datos. Que están bien pero no tanto como se especulaba o al menos no tan conclusivos. Pongo los mensajes más destacados:

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https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=193&mn=45911&pt=msg&mid=18165266

A single, a double, a triple, with the last comparison of MN on egg-adapted vs circulating making the most compelling argument (IMO) for why this particular thing may warrant accelerated consideration (this was vs forward drift Singapore, last data slide).  The MN vs the homologous H3N2 (Hongkong) was unfortunately the weakest data, so while HAI was notably higher. MN was marginally lower (which would, IMO, argue more for an efficacy trial, but there was a lower baseline, so GMTR was 2.2 vs 2.3, basically a wash).  I imagine red will have some thoughts. 

But back to the last slide, the MN vs the forward drift of actual circulating would have (IMO) made a meaningful difference in Australia last summer.

 And this was definitely an elderly trial, the age breakouts show these vaxes were up against a tough crowd.  

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(1) in response to muddyc: I agree on the H3N2 Hongkong MN assay, this the weakest arm. This suggests to me something I've been speculating all along, that these formulations unlike egg-based vaccines are a bit artsy, and indeed in this instance some minor tweaking of the formulation may make a significant improvement. (this is why I'd like the nanoflu, etc, in the hands of a deep pocket player); 
(2) In response to stockwarrior on what the presentation left out. Yep. And this is why efficacy may be higher, different, than these assay differences might suggest; 
(3) On the drifted strains, appears to me this puts the nanoflu in range of efficacy for most of these. Slides 13 and 14 show definite superiority of the Nanoflu; 
(4) On accelerated approval? This is an interesting question. I think the answer is no. But it is complicated. I believe the answer is no because the recent experience with drifted strains has pointed to limitations in the HA and MN assays as definitive predictors of efficacy, which means you have to actually test for efficacy -- especially for new formulations. And, as Warrior notes, the Nanoflu efficacy may well be higher than these assays suggest. The counter argument, supporting Accelerated approval -- if the FDA really believes in these assays (they are the Standard), then this data looks good enough to support it given the fact everyone now wants to capture some drift in the stains. 

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https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=193&mn=45915&pt=msg&mid=18165548

In my opinion, not a clear homerun ffor NanoFlu due to Neutralization results. It does appear that NanoFlu High Dose would have been superior against new Singapore strain, which is the potential silver lining in all this. Also, NF Low Dose is comparable to FZ-HD in many areas. What worries me is the planned PH3 in 2H-2019 without AA. That implies no approved vaccine until 2021 Flu season at the earliest. 

Time for Novavax to catch a break and have somebody step up with some cash. Partner or BARDA, it does not matter.

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redplate:

Look again at strains, the only strain they failed superiority against was the egg adapted strain, the strain used to make this years egg vaccine. That's good, it is not a circulating strain it's a lab artifactual strain.

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https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=193&mn=45918&pt=msg&mid=18165853

Although the presentation was very solid, it doesn’t spell out what could be an ace in the hole, for Novavax/NanoFlu, and something to be covered in the upcoming NF manuscript. The thing is... The HAI & NT assays don’t tell the whole story. The reason that NanoFlu is broadly cross protective against years of drifted H3N2, is because NanoFlu with Matrix-M, is not only reaching the HA heads, but also the stalk. 

As we all know by now, almost all the universal vaccine candidates are focusing on the conserved stalk. This is something Henry was talking about in regards to NanoFlu from the beginning. It is my understanding that the assays done by NVAX, reflect only the antibodies specific to the head and not the stalk. If true, NanoFlu might be ( should be ), more efficacious then the HAI & NT charts are showing. Call it the magic of Matrix-M 

Check this... 

Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Stalk-Specific Antibodies in Human Serum are a Surrogate Marker for In Vivo Protection in a Serum Transfer Mouse Challenge Model 

http://mbio.asm.org/content/8/5/e01463-17.full 

“The immunogenicity of current influenza virus vaccines is assessed by measuring an increase of influenza virus-specific antibodies in a hemagglutination inhibition assay. This method exclusively measures antibodies against the hemagglutinin head domain. While this domain is immunodominant, it has been shown that hemagglutination inhibition titers do not always accurately predict protection from disease. In addition, several novel influenza virus vaccines that are currently under development do not target the hemagglutinin head domain, but rather more conserved sites, including the hemagglutinin stalk. Importantly, antibodies against the hemagglutinin stalk do not show activity in hemagglutination inhibition assays and will require different methods for quantification”

redplate contesta:

Correct 
I wrote a detailed set of comments that refused to post (hope this one does). The strain mapping allows isolation of specific drift epitopes, and by back tracking ten years, create epitope maps in the lineages sequences. HAI doesn't show this, it's suggestive but not able to differentiate these stalk epitopes. So the paper still has the key viral neutralization data for the differentiating data. The only partial negative is that the strongest data requires the high dose, but it works.

Stan, comete esa vela tú majete 

veo 298,390 cromos a 2,05 en AH ... hmmmmm

uy que bien , gracias mil, ya tengo lectura esta noche je, je

claaaaaro, solo a 1?  naaaaah , te hace falta un +2500% .... muchaaaaa suerteeeee ehhhh? :)

Lorca:

¿Puedo preeguntarte cuanto te ha salido en comisiones esa operación?

Y algo que he leido a los usanos de barda. De haber barda como pronto seria julio y los mas probable en caso de que se diese seria octubre. Stan vete a tomar por saco.

Buenos días Leioa;

Pues me ha costado 24$ cada una de las 2 compras (Bankinter). Es una comisión alta pero, como ya he comentado, considero que es una inversión muy pequeña con los resultados que puede dar. Hay veces que metes en un valor 30.000$ y te baja un 20% y pierdes mucho más que en este caso. Haré como siempre, me da igual que tarde 1 mes, 13 meses o 2 años...

Mi objetivo es claro, esperar la explosión si se produce y multiplicar por 2x

Saludos.

Hola Framus, entiendo que es muy dificil, pero ya ha estado en ese valor. Yo no espero vender mañana, ni la semana que viene. La clave para ganar en bolsa es hacer intras + stop como vosotros haceis o COMPRAR BARATO. Como no tengo mucho tiempo, pues yo uso la segunda, je je je.

Lorca cuidado con nvcn. Capitaliza 3 millones y tiene aviso de deslisting y no solo por estar por debajo de 1 que se arregla con un contrasplit, sino por no capitalizar el minimo de 35 millones de dolares que es lo minimo para cotizar en el nasdaq y eso no se arregla con el contrasplit.

Luego dicen de las cryptos juajuajua!!!

Muchas gracias Tutamen, ya vi lo que me comentas, como cuando estaba Nvax a 0,70 y estaba pillado. Es una apuesta de alto riesgo, pero si sale bien ganaré bastante. Yo me he dado cuenta últimamente que ya no importan los fundamentales, técnicos, gráficos ni nada de eso. Llega una agencia el día menos pensado y te baja una cotización un 50%, todos salen corriendo, ellos van cargando y luego la suben un 80%.

Estoy bastante seguro de que en este caso han hecho eso.

Muchas gracias por el aviso.

De las técnicas que he usado recentemente, la que mejor me ha ido es la de COMPRAR BARATO.

Ya os iré informando con el paso del tiempo las quiebras que pillo y los pelotazos que pego, jejeje.

Saludos

ojala que te salga bien. Tienen un buen presidente con una reputación intachable. Pero tiene una papeleta difícil para no irse al OTC, y ya sabemos como es la cueva de alibaba.

Gracias, Lorca.

Te preguntaba porque yo uso Degiro para intras USA (por ser el mas barato, no el mas bueno) y esa operación me saldria por 100$

Hay que tener cuidado (en degiro) con las acciones que cotizan a minicentimos, ya que se paga por numero de acciones.

Bueno, espero que te salga bien la jugada. Solo era curiosodad.