Buenos dias,siento la tardanza en contestar pero mis hobbies requieren tiempo.Tengo mas de 50 arboles frutales en casa y algunos injertados por mi ,asi tengo un arbol que da melocotones por una rama,nectarinas por otra y albaricoques por otra,al ser de la misma familia le he hecho cirugia arborea.Un espectaculo!.Encima me ha dado ahora por crear hibridos de floresde un tipo de bulbos crinum ,y la mañana es ideal para polinizar con polen el estigma de otra y poder crear una flor nueva si se dan las condiciones.Entretenido,relajante pero al final me lleva tiempo.Bueno con el sol me resguardo y puedo leer y escribir,asi que no me disperso mas y al tema.
Benjamin Nolan es el especialista maritimo de Styfel Nicolaus.El servicio de Styfel es de pago y no estoy subscrito ,asi que no te puedo dar el link directamente ,no obstante sigo desde hace tiempo a un forero americano absolutamente fiable y puedo transcribirtelo para que saques tus propias conclusiones.Aunque no directamente ,te puedo decir donde lo lei porque no me acuerdo,pero lo creo ,Ben Nolan se fue a Brasil para comprobar con sus ojos lo que Golar estaba haciendo.
Añadir nuevamente ,que si ,Golar va a atravesar un periodo complicado .Si los rates no suben como esta previsto lo va a pasar canutas los proximos 9 meses.Yo suelo leer las presentaciones a medio plazo de Glog ,son estupendas y muy serias y te las recomiendo y coinciden en el shortage de barcos y aumento de los rates y tengo confianza en ello.Ahora tienen dos barcos a un año con 75000-80000$ Y 4 en spot variables pero ya sabes que esta sobre los 65000$ ahora y tres en dry drocking este trimestre .El proximo trimestre seran los resultados malos ,pero no tan malos por lo que te he dicho y si lo de la presentacion de Glog es cierto tendrian todos los barcos libres en el ultimo trimestre y siguientes con rates altos,para hacer el spin off de 8 barcosomlo que quieran.Pero claro y si no ocurre??.La empresa lo pasaria mal,es verdad que la próxima deuda son bonos en el 2022 y tienen 150 m de credito conseguidos este trimestre pero andarian muy justos.En todo caso hasta 9- 10 $ ultimos minimos no vuelvo a entrar y siempre si llega a esos numeros previo examen de la compañia .Mi promedio sobre 15$ pues no me deja contento pero tengo paciencia y me sigue gustando lal empresa y creo Brasil va a ser una buena sorpresa en 3-4 trimestres por los negocios adicionales a Sergipe y Nanook.
Va lo que dijo Nolan:
Morning Summary from Stifel (GLNG, Buy, $27 GMLP, Buy $14)
Golar and Golar Partners reported earnings today. The parent company missed estimates, but the partnership slightly beat our estimates. The parent chose to suspend dividends temporarily to buy back shares which sent the shares down dramatically. We believe the sell-off is overblown. In our preview note we estimated the downside case for Golar with no optionality at $12/share, which when taking into account the downstream projects for GolarPower, Hilli's third train, additional Tortue FLNG vessels, and a potential win with the Leviathan project, the stock should have a floor as soon as the trading momentum subsides. For the partnership, the units are currently trading above 16% yield, indicating that the market believes there will be another cut. Ultimately, we expect GMLP to be rolled up into GLNG rather than cutting distributions.
Key Points
Golar missed earnings, the Partnership beat. Golar reported adjusted loss per share of ($0.47) which was below our estimate of ($0.22) and the street consensus estimate of ($0.31). The miss was largely driven by lower than expected revenue from the LNG shipping business. The Partnership reported adjusted earnings per unit of $0.23 which was slightly better than our estimate of $0.22 but below the street consensus estimate of $0.25.
Out with the old FLNG Project and in with the New. Golar announced that they will not be moving forward with the Delfin FLNG project. Management sited putting their time and capital behind projects with the highest chances of success. To that end, management said they were bidding on the Leviathan project with the Mark III design to liquefy 5 mtpa of LNG. That project is down to two providers, Exmar and Golar. We expect that if the project moves past initial development stages that only need to pipe gas, Golar to be able to offer a better solution than Exmar and ultimately will be the winner of that contract. We estimate a contract should be awarded (to either Golar or Exmar) in 1H20 with delivery for a vessel in 2023/24. We wrote about the project in our note, Another Project In the Pipeline.
Downside protected, still lots of optionality. In our 2Q19 earnings preview note, we estimated the downside of Golar based on contracted cash flows is $12/share. However, there is substantial upside potential with GolarPower projects in Brazil, the Hilli T3&T4, additional Tortue FLNG vessels, and a potential with the Leviathan project. For GolarPower, there are three projects that continue to move along. The Sergipe project has the potential to double EBITDA if Golar can win the power auction in October. Golar was awarded licenses to build both an FSRU and a 609 MW power station in Barcarena. In Babitonga Bay, Golar received a license to build an FSRU terminal which will service an oil major's power plant in the region. All three Brazillian projects are expected to use excess FSRU capacity to sell small scale LNG downstream which management expects will be ready by 2Q-2020. Golar has two FSRUs available, the Golar Tundra and the Golar Spirit that could both slot into the two newer GolarPower projects in short order. We estimate each GolarPower project will generate $40-80 million of annual EBITDA and be worth ~$4/share per project.
Goodish news on the shipping front. While 2Q was a disaster for the LNG shipping business, the company did take the prudent step of putting six of the vessels on time charter contracts (two at fixed rates and four at variable rates), which should improve utilization going forward. Additionally, the spot market has been tightening and we expect it should continue to tighten which should enable even further contracting. Golar looks to simplify the structure. GLNG will stop paying a dividend for 2 quarters and will instead use that $30 million saved to pay for the net $31 million needed to close out the TRS and buy back the 3 million shares. In addition, while details are sparse, management still expects to spin-off 8 TFDE carriers into a separate company before the end of the year, although the spin-off is subject to equity and LNG market considerations. There is always the option of rolling up the partnership back into the parent, although it would divert capital away from growing the business at the parent, or may require too much dilution in an equity for equity transaction.
Lowering estimates on Hilli timing. Management was vaguer than we anticipated with respect to contracting Train 3 and 4 of the Hilli. Therefore we are pushing out our anticipated dates of when T3&T4 get contracted, and subsequently, we are lowering our estimates.
Summary
We are at liquidation value. GLNG stock has traded down 46.3% YTD (relative to the S&P500 up 16.7%) to a closing price of $11.51. We believe the sell-off was unwarranted. Looking at the firm contracted cash flows for the company should no new projects materialize, we estimate the shares to be worth $12/share. Granted there have been a number of options that have gone away (Fortuna and Delfin), however, there still remain options for value creation we discussed on the first page. If the company were to simply deliver on its current contracted cash flows, continue to use free cash flow to pay down debt,
Investment Thesis
Golar LNG Limited (GLNG)
We believe Golar is in the process of transforming from a traditional provider of LNG transportation and floating regasification solutions to becoming a fully integrated leader in every segment of the LNG supply chain from liquefaction, transportation, and regasification, including power plant generation. Now that the company plans to spin out the LNG carriers to a new company, the focus is on increasing the utilization of current assets in the FLNG, FSRU, and Downstream segments. With the Golar Power Sergipe project set to turn on at the beginning of 2020, Golar looks to sell small scale LNG cargoes off the excess capacity in the Nanook. In addition, we expect a second Golar Power project in the next 12 months. Ultimately, the other potential projects do not seem to be priced into the shares. With several FLNG opportunities available in the marketplace that are only in the initial phases of development, we believe Golar could have several FLNG conversion units operational by the middle of next decade. While capital raising remains an issue and juggling several balls at once while maintaining a "shoot first and ask questions later" approach is not without risk, we believe the management team is up to the task.
Golar LNG Partners LP (GMLP)
