Re: Seguimiento de tendencias de acuerdo a los ciclos
The relationship between economic fundamentals and interest rates has broken down during the latest iteration of Fed monetary policy. In the current monetary policy environment, Fed policy makers are cautious towards signaling rising rates on any possible economic strengthening. On the other hand, they are aggressive at meeting expectations for ever-increasing amounts of policy accommodation. This policy reaction has led to a one-way correlation between rates and fundamentals: lower growth associated with declining rates but more limited increases in rates from higher growth. Similar to this time last year, the gap between low rates and rising economic growth suggests higher rates, yet persistent policy accommodation – in effect "soft financial repression" holds down those increases.